标题：运用GM(1,1)模型和曲线回归模型预测辽阳市丙肝发病趋势

      作者：石 雷
    (辽阳市疾病预防控制中心，辽宁 辽阳 111000)

      卷次： 2015年26卷5期

      【摘要】 目的 预测辽阳市丙肝的发病趋势，为制定防控措施提供科学依据。方法 利用辽阳市丙肝
发病资料，建立GM(1，1)模型和曲线回归模型预测辽阳市丙肝发病趋势。结果 辽阳市丙肝发病数的GM
(1，1)预测模型为 =（123+259.0685/0.1304)e0.1304t-259.0685/0.1304。预测值与实测值偏离较大；曲线回归模型
为 y=146.134+10.101x+19.234x2-1.466x3，该预测模型的拟合效果较好。结论 曲线回归模型可较好地预测辽
阳市丙肝发病趋势。

      【关键词】 GM(1，1)模型；曲线回归模型；预测

      【中图分类号】 R512.6+3 【文献标识码】 A 【文章编号】 1003—6350（2015）05—0753—03


Prediction of the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Liaoyang city by GM(1,1) model and curve regression model.
SHI Lei.
Liaoyang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Liaoyang 111000, Liaoning, CHINA

【Abstract】 Objective To predict the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Liaoyang, and provide scientific ba-
sis for further prevention and control of hepatitis C. Methods GM(1,1) model and curve regression model were ap-
plied to predict the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Liaoyang. Results GM(1,1) model forecast equation
was =(123 + 259.0685/0.1304)e0.1304t-259.0685/0.1304. The predicted values deviated from the measured
values seriously. Curve regression model was y=146.134 + 10.101x + 19.234x2-1.466x3, and the model fitted well.
Conclusion Curve regression model fits well for predicting the trend of hepatitis C in Liaoyang.