标题：海口市传染病自动预警信息系统预警效果分析

      作者：朱 庆，林忠岭，王明衡
    （海口市疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制科，海南 海口 571100）

      卷次： 2012年23卷19期

      【摘要】 目的 分析评价传染病自动预警信息系统预警效果，探索影响因素，为提高预警效率提供依据。
方法 以灵敏度、阳性预测值为传染病暴发事件预警评价指标，预警信号阳性率为单病例预警评价指标，应用描
述性方法对2011年海口市预警系统中的数据信息进行分析评价。结果 2011年预警系统发出预警信息921次，
有效预警 246次，其中传染病暴发事件预警灵敏度为 60.00%，阳性预测值为 0.46%；单病例预警阳性率为
92.07%。结论 系统单病例预警成功率高，对预警病种暴发事件高度敏感，但预警准确性低，预警阈值及预警病
种设置为主要影响因素。

      【关键词】 传染病；预警；效果

      【中图分类号】 R51 【文献标识码】 D 【文章编号】 1003—6350（2012）19—133—02<

br>Automatic early-warning information system for infectious disease control in Haikou.
ZHU Qing, LIN
Zhong-ling, WANG Ming-heng. Department of Acute Infectious Disease Control, Haikou Center for Disease Control and
Prevention, Haikou 571100, CHINA

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze and evaluate the early warning effect of automatic early-warning information
system of infectious diseases outbreak, and improve the efficiency of early warning. Methods Using sensitivity posi-
tive predictive value and lead time as evaluation index, 2011 year Haikou infectious disease outbreak early warning ef-
fect was analyzed. Results There were 921 cases of infectious disease outbreak in 2011, early issued warning outbreak
of 246, the sensitivity was 60.00%, the positive predictive value of 0.46%, and the positive number of lead time was
92.07%. Conclusion System warning has high success rate or single case; has highly sensitivity for the infectious dis-
ease outbreak, but warning accuracy is low, warning threshold value and warning diseases are the main influence factors.

      【Key words】 Infectious disease; Early warning; Efficiency
·疾病监控·