标题：中国老年慢性病共病患病率及危险因素的Meta分析

      作者：汪迎春，张倩，柳晶，周晓明，卢恋，袁琪，姜海燕    汪迎春，张倩，柳晶，周晓明，卢恋，袁琪，姜海燕鄂州市中心医院，湖北 鄂州 436099

      卷次： 2024年35卷12期

      【摘要】 目的 通过Meta分析确定中国老年慢性病共病的患病率和危险因素，为制定适合我国实际情况的老年人慢性病共病健康管理策略和社区干预方案提供科学依据。方法 系统检索PubMed、Embase、Web of Science、Cochrane、中国期刊全文数据库(CNKI)、中国科技期刊全文数据库(VIP)、万方数据库以及中国生物医药文献数据库(CBM)等关于中国老年慢性病共病的患病率和危险因素的观察性研究。两名具有循证护理学习经验的研究者通过三轮筛选、文献评价、数据提取，采用Stata20.0软件对中国老年慢性病共病的患病率和危险因素依次进行Meta合并、敏感性分析和发表偏倚分析。结果 中英文数据初检出相关文献2 727篇，最终纳入14篇文献，总样本量54 982例，提取影响因素14个。Meta分析结果显示，中国老年人慢性病共病患病率为44.9%，95%CI：34.1%~55.7%。中国老年人慢性病共病危险因素包括：年龄(≥70岁)、性别(女)、慢性病家族史、婚姻状况(单身、丧偶、离异)、BMI (≥24 kg/m2)、吸烟、饮酒，OR值和 95%CI分别是 1.40 (1.28~1.53)、1.22 (1.10~1.34)、2.15 (1.87~2.46)、1.40 (1.17~1.68)、1.59 (1.03~2.43)、1.18 (1.08~1.30)、1.20 (1.02~1.42)。结论 中国老年慢性病共病的患病率较高，其中年龄(≥70岁)、性别(女)、慢性病家族史、婚姻状况(单身、丧偶、离异)、BMI (≥24 kg/m2)、吸烟、饮酒是中国老年慢性病共病的危险因素。针对可改变的危险因素，未来应积极改善老年人不健康的生活方式，开展综合性的干预措施。
      【关键词】 慢性病共病；患病率；老年人；中国；危险因素；Meta分析
      【中图分类号】 R339.34 【文献标识码】 A 【文章编号】 1003—6350（2024）12—1780—07

Prevalence and risk factors of multiple chronic conditions among elderly people in China: a meta-analysis.
WANGYing-chun, ZHANG Qian, LIU Jing, ZHOU Xiao-ming, LU Lian, YUAN Qi, JIANG Hai-yan. Ezhou Central Hospital,Ezhou 436099, Hubei, CHINA
【Abstract】 Objective To determine the prevalence and identify risk factors of multiple chronic conditionsamong elderly people in China, and to provide scientific basis for developing health management strategies and commu-nity intervention plans for multiple chronic conditions among the elderly that are suitable for the actual situation in Chi-na. Methods Systematic searches were conducted on PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane, Chinese JournalFull-text Database (CNKI), Chinese Scientific Journal Full-text Database (VIP), Wanfang Database, and Chinese Bio-medical Literature Database (CBM) for observational studies regarding prevalence and risk factors of multiple chronicconditions among the elderly in China. Two researchers with experience in evidence-based nursing went through threerounds of screening, literature evaluation, and data extraction, and used Stata20.0 software to conduct meta-merging, sen-sitivity analysis, and publication bias analysis on the prevalence and risk factors of multiple chronic conditions amongthe elderly in China. Results A total of 2 727 pertinent studies were found during the initial search in databases in bothChinese and English, and 14 studies (totaling 54 982 cases) were included in the final selection. Fourteen risk factorswere found after an extensive investigation. According to the findings of a meta-analysis, the prevalence of multiplechronic conditions among the elderly in China was 44.9%, with 95%CI of 34.1% to 55.7%. Risk factors for multiplechronic conditions in Chinese elderly included age (≥70), gender (female), family history of chronic disease, marital sta-tus (single, widower, divorced), BMI (≥24 kg/m2), smoking, and drinking, and the the odds ratios (OR) and 95%CIwere 1.40 (1.28-1.53), 1.22 (1.10-1.34), 2.15 (1.87-2.46), 1.40 (1.17-1.68), 1.59 (1.03-2.43), 1.18 (1.08-1.30), 1.20(1.02-1.42), respectively. Conclusion The prevalence of multiple chronic conditions among the elderly in China is rela-tively high. Risk factors for these conditions include advanced age (≥70), gender (female), family history of chronic dis-eases, marital status (single, widower, divorced), BMI (≥24 kg/m2), smoking, and drinking. In China, proactive effortsshould be undertaken to adopt comprehensive intervention methods that take into account modifiable risk factors.
      【Key words】 Multiple chronic conditions; Prevalence; Elderly; China; Risk factors; Meta-analysis